Minimizing Uncertainty in the Design of Technical Systems

This book addresses the problem of uncertainty faced by designers of aircraft, space and aerospace vehicles, nuclear power plants or other complex and safety-critical technical systems. Uncertainty ranges from stochastic variations in known variables - system properties and loads applied in normal operating conditions - to the lack of knowledge about all possible adverse events during the service life and the behavior of the system in such situations. Errors in forecasting extreme impacts not covered by available statistics, or completely unknown events, combined with the inability of the system to withstand them, create a threat of an accident or catastrophe with significant material losses, damage to the environment and fatal consequences for human life or health. Such a threat must be minimized using appropriate design methods.

Traditional design methodology relies on assumptions about future operation that are based on previous experience and formalized using probabilistic models or deterministic safety factors corresponding to certain probabilities. As a result of its application, the designed technical systems operate reliably and safely in predictable conditions. However, this methodology is inadequate for tasks in which uncertainty is primarily due to unknown factors – tasks that arise, for example, in the development of probes for deep space missions, planetary bases, suborbital transport systems, or power plants functioning on new principles. The book analyzes existing approaches to minimizing uncertainty at the design stage and identifies their shortcomings, that complicate ensuring safety in difficult to predict operating conditions. To overcome these shortcomings, a promising design concept is proposed: Smart ProActive Resilient System (SPARS). It combines well-known approaches that form defense in depth against predictable adverse events with the capabilities of modern technologies, including artificial intelligence, and bionic ideas aimed at ensuring resilience to unforeseen dangers. This concept is illustrated using an example from design practice – the analysis of emergency landing of an aerospace vehicle.

The book is interdisciplinary in nature and contributes to the development of the philosophy of design.