Democratic Revolutions and Anti-Authoritarian Protests

This book provides an analysis of the intense protest waves which periodically confront authoritarian regimes, and which lead to democratic revolutions, but whose outcomes are highly variable. It examines four possible outcomes of these protest waves: democratic revolution that combines ouster of the authoritarian incumbent with democratization, democratic reform in which incumbents are not forcibly removed but in which a democratic transition occurs, stolen revolution that involves ousting the leader without a democratic transition, and status quo in which the regime remains in power.

This author examines an original dataset on protest waves that occurred in authoritarian regimes around the world from 1980 to 2011. These waves were remarkably common, occurring in two-thirds of the countries that experienced authoritarianism during this period. Using a multimethod design involving quantitative analysis of 137 protest waves and case studies for each of the four outcomes, the book shows that the outcomes of antiauthoritarian protest waves depend on the balance of power between the authoritarian regime and opposition, as well as contingent actions that occur during the waves, including the use of certain protest tactics, repression and concessions by authoritarian regimes in response to the protests, coup attempts and defections by the military, and the holding of contested elections. Uniquely, this research also captures unsuccessful protest waves typically overlooked in revolution studies, providing a more representative understanding of contentious politics under authoritarianism.

With global coverage and case studies spanning Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, the book offers valuable insights for researchers as well as postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate students in sociology and political science interested in how protest movements challenge dictatorial rule.